Shooting Stars 1–0 Bendel Insurance: Result & Stats

Shooting Stars

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bendel Insurance

2/29/2024

NPFL · Round 22Adamasingba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Shooting Stars57%

×Draw28%

Bendel Insurance15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shooting StarsExpected goals in this matchBendel Insurance

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.57

Shooting Stars

1.38

Bendel Insurance

0.57

Shooting Stars creates 142% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 79 away

1.62

creates per match

0.61

0.54

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Shooting Stars

1.62

Bendel Insurance

0.61

allows per match

Shooting Stars

0.54

Bendel Insurance

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shooting Stars+0.00on par

Bendel Insurance+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shooting Stars ↓

Bendel Insurance →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Shooting Stars or draw

85%

Shooting Stars or Bendel Insurance

72%

Draw or Bendel Insurance

43%

Winning margin

Shooting Stars wins by 2+

28%

Bendel Insurance wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Shooting Stars 1+ goals

75%

Shooting Stars 2+ goals

40%

Shooting Stars 3+ goals

16%

Bendel Insurance 1+ goals

43%

Bendel Insurance 2+ goals

11%

Bendel Insurance 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Shooting Stars (draw refunded)

79%

Bendel Insurance (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shooting Stars at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.54 · 85 matches

Bendel Insurance away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.13 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shooting Stars attack 1.62 + Bendel Insurance defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.38

Bendel Insurance attack 0.61 + Shooting Stars defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Shooting Stars scores more

57%

level

28%

Bendel Insurance scores more

15%

Shooting Stars at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Shooting Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff