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Shooting Stars vs Barau FC — NPFL 2019

Shooting Stars
Shooting Stars
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Barau FC
Barau FC
5/10/2026NPFLNPFL · Round 37Lekan Salami Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Shooting Stars60%
×Draw29%
Barau FC11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shooting Stars
1.31
Barau FC
0.40

Shooting Stars creates 228% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 19 away

creates per match

Shooting Stars
1.62
Barau FC
0.26

allows per match

Shooting Stars
0.54
Barau FC
1.00

finishing

Shooting Stars+0.00on par
Barau FC+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

76%No
  • No76
  • Yes24

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shooting Stars ↓

Barau FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–17%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–024%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (24%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Shooting Stars or draw
89%
Shooting Stars or Barau FC
71%
Draw or Barau FC
40%

Winning margin

Shooting Stars wins by 2+
29%
Barau FC wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Shooting Stars 1+ goals
73%
Shooting Stars 2+ goals
38%
Shooting Stars 3+ goals
14%
Barau FC 1+ goals
33%
Barau FC 2+ goals
6%
Barau FC 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Shooting Stars (draw refunded)
84%
Barau FC (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shooting Stars at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.54 · 85 matches

Barau FC away — creates 0.26, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shooting Stars attack 1.62 + Barau FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.31

Barau FC attack 0.26 + Shooting Stars defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Shooting Stars scores more
60%
level
29%
Barau FC scores more
11%

Shooting Stars at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Shooting Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shooting Stars vs Barau FC

Shooting Stars beat Barau FC 1-0 in NPFL on May 10, 2026.

The match was played at Lekan Salami Stadium in Ibadan.