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Shonan Bellmare vs Yokohama FC — J1 League 2018

Shonan Bellmare
Shonan Bellmare
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Yokohama FC
Yokohama FC
5/17/2025J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 17Lemon Gas Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Shonan Bellmare45%
×Draw27%
Yokohama FC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shonan Bellmare
1.43
Yokohama FC
1.06

Shonan Bellmare creates 35% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 72 away

creates per match

Shonan Bellmare
1.01
Yokohama FC
0.78

allows per match

Shonan Bellmare
1.35
Yokohama FC
1.85

finishing

Shonan Bellmare+0.00on par
Yokohama FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shonan Bellmare ↓

Yokohama FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Shonan Bellmare or draw
72%
Shonan Bellmare or Yokohama FC
73%
Draw or Yokohama FC
55%

Winning margin

Shonan Bellmare wins by 2+
22%
Yokohama FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Shonan Bellmare 1+ goals
76%
Shonan Bellmare 2+ goals
42%
Shonan Bellmare 3+ goals
17%
Yokohama FC 1+ goals
65%
Yokohama FC 2+ goals
29%
Yokohama FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Shonan Bellmare (draw refunded)
62%
Yokohama FC (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shonan Bellmare at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.35 · 144 matches

Yokohama FC away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.85 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shonan Bellmare attack 1.01 + Yokohama FC defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.43

Yokohama FC attack 0.78 + Shonan Bellmare defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Shonan Bellmare scores more
45%
level
27%
Yokohama FC scores more
28%

Shonan Bellmare at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Shonan Bellmare will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shonan Bellmare vs Yokohama FC

Yokohama FC beat Shonan Bellmare 1-0 in J1 League on May 17, 2025.

The match was played at Lemon Gas Stadium in Hiratsuka.