Shonan Bellmare vs Gamba Osaka — J1 League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 12+ matches
Shonan Bellmare34%
Gamba Osaka40%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 20 home / 12 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over51
- Under49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes55
- No45
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Shonan Bellmare ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Shonan Bellmare at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.45 · 20 matches
Gamba Osaka away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.38 · 12 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Shonan Bellmare attack 1.20 + Gamba Osaka defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.29
Gamba Osaka attack 1.37 + Shonan Bellmare defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.41
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 40%?"
Gamba Osaka at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 40% does not mean "Gamba Osaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Kashima
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Vissel Kobe
Machida Zelvia
FC Tokyo
Kashiwa ReysolGamba Osaka
Kyoto Sanga
Yokohama F. Marinos
Urawa
Cerezo Osaka
Nagoya Grampus
Kawasaki Frontale
Fagiano Okayama
Tokyo Verdy
Avispa Fukuoka
Shimizu S-pulse
V-varen Nagasaki
Yokohama FC
Mito Hollyhock
JEF United ChibaShonan Bellmare
Albirex NiigataIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Shonan Bellmare host Gamba Osaka on Saturday, 1 June 2024 at 06:00. The match is part of the J1 League 2018/2019 season.
J1 League: Shonan Bellmare 1–2 Gamba Osaka
Gamba Osaka beat Shonan Bellmare 2-1 in J1 League on June 1, 2024.
Goals: T. Usami (29', 65' pen), Lukian (78').
Shonan Bellmare controlled possession (72%) and registered 16 shots to 4.
The match was played at Lemon Gas Stadium Hiratsuka in Hiratsuka.