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Shkupi 1927 vs Tikveš — First League 2019

Shkupi 1927
Shkupi 1927
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tikveš
Tikveš
3/3/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 21Stadion Čair

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Shkupi 192748%
×Draw25%
Tikveš27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shkupi 1927
1.56
Tikveš
1.11

Shkupi 1927 creates 41% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 80 away

creates per match

Shkupi 1927
1.71
Tikveš
1.05

allows per match

Shkupi 1927
1.17
Tikveš
1.41

finishing

Shkupi 1927+0.00on par
Tikveš+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shkupi 1927 ↓

Tikveš →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Shkupi 1927 or draw
73%
Shkupi 1927 or Tikveš
75%
Draw or Tikveš
52%

Winning margin

Shkupi 1927 wins by 2+
24%
Tikveš wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Shkupi 1927 1+ goals
79%
Shkupi 1927 2+ goals
46%
Shkupi 1927 3+ goals
21%
Tikveš 1+ goals
67%
Tikveš 2+ goals
30%
Tikveš 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Shkupi 1927 (draw refunded)
64%
Tikveš (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shkupi 1927 at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.17 · 110 matches

Tikveš away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.41 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shkupi 1927 attack 1.71 + Tikveš defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.56

Tikveš attack 1.05 + Shkupi 1927 defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Shkupi 1927 scores more
48%
level
25%
Tikveš scores more
27%

Shkupi 1927 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Shkupi 1927 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shkupi 1927 vs Tikveš

Shkupi 1927 and Tikveš drew 0-0 in First League on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Čair in Skopje.