Shkupi 1927 2–2 Renova: Result & Stats

Shkupi 1927

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Renova

M. Jurina 89', 42'

R. Selmani 82', 43'

8/25/2019

First League · Round 3Stadion Čair

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Shkupi 192746%

×Draw25%

Renova29%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shkupi 1927Expected goals in this matchRenova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.18

Shkupi 1927

1.56

Renova

1.18

Shkupi 1927 creates 32% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 52 away

1.71

creates per match

1.19

1.17

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Shkupi 1927

1.71

Renova

1.19

allows per match

Shkupi 1927

1.17

Renova

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shkupi 1927+0.00on par

Renova+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shkupi 1927 ↓

Renova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Shkupi 1927 or draw

71%

Shkupi 1927 or Renova

75%

Draw or Renova

54%

Winning margin

Shkupi 1927 wins by 2+

23%

Renova wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Shkupi 1927 1+ goals

79%

Shkupi 1927 2+ goals

46%

Shkupi 1927 3+ goals

21%

Renova 1+ goals

69%

Renova 2+ goals

33%

Renova 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Shkupi 1927 (draw refunded)

62%

Renova (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shkupi 1927 at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.17 · 110 matches

Renova away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.42 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shkupi 1927 attack 1.71 + Renova defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.56

Renova attack 1.19 + Shkupi 1927 defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Shkupi 1927 scores more

46%

level

25%

Renova scores more

29%

Shkupi 1927 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Shkupi 1927 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

42'

M. Jurina

43'

R. Selmani

45'

46'

D. Darboe← M. Ljika

52'

I. Ademi← B. Miovski

67'

О. Goudiaby← M. Bajrami

79'

82'

R. Selmani

84'

B. Gjorgievski← S. Bilalli

87'

88'

L. Skenderi← R. Selmani

89'

M. Jurina

90'

Shkupi

Renova

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

Manager: M. Bajrami

46'▲D. Darboe←▼M. Ljika

67'▲О. Goudiaby←▼M. Bajrami

84'▲B. Gjorgievski←▼S. Bilalli

Shkupi 1927 substitutes

DarboeGoudiabyGjorgievski

Manager: B. Islami

52'▲I. Ademi←▼B. Miovski

88'▲L. Skenderi←▼R. Selmani

Renova substitutes

AdemiSkenderi