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Renova vs Shkupi 1927 — First League 2019

Renova
Renova
CANC
00:00
Shkupi 1927
Shkupi 1927
8/21/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 3Ecolog Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Renova45%
×Draw27%
Shkupi 192728%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Renova
1.39
Shkupi 1927
1.04

Renova creates 34% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 106 away

creates per match

Renova
1.19
Shkupi 1927
1.04

allows per match

Renova
1.04
Shkupi 1927
1.58

finishing

Renova+0.00on par
Shkupi 1927+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Renova ↓

Shkupi 1927 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Renova or draw
72%
Renova or Shkupi 1927
73%
Draw or Shkupi 1927
55%

Winning margin

Renova wins by 2+
21%
Shkupi 1927 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Renova 1+ goals
75%
Renova 2+ goals
40%
Renova 3+ goals
16%
Shkupi 1927 1+ goals
65%
Shkupi 1927 2+ goals
28%
Shkupi 1927 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Renova (draw refunded)
61%
Shkupi 1927 (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Renova at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.04 · 47 matches

Shkupi 1927 away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.58 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Renova attack 1.19 + Shkupi 1927 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.39

Shkupi 1927 attack 1.04 + Renova defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Renova scores more
45%
level
27%
Shkupi 1927 scores more
28%

Renova at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Renova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Renova host Shkupi 1927

August 21, 2022: Renova take on Shkupi 1927 in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Renova host Shkupi 1927 at Ecolog Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.