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Shkupi 1927 vs Makedonija GjP — First League 2019

Shkupi 1927
Shkupi 1927
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Makedonija GjP
Makedonija GjP
9/20/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 7Stadion Čair

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Shkupi 192750%
×Draw24%
Makedonija GjP26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shkupi 1927
1.68
Makedonija GjP
1.15

Shkupi 1927 creates 46% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 94 away

creates per match

Shkupi 1927
1.71
Makedonija GjP
1.14

allows per match

Shkupi 1927
1.17
Makedonija GjP
1.65

finishing

Shkupi 1927+0.00on par
Makedonija GjP+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shkupi 1927 ↓

Makedonija GjP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Shkupi 1927 or draw
74%
Shkupi 1927 or Makedonija GjP
76%
Draw or Makedonija GjP
50%

Winning margin

Shkupi 1927 wins by 2+
27%
Makedonija GjP wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Shkupi 1927 1+ goals
81%
Shkupi 1927 2+ goals
50%
Shkupi 1927 3+ goals
24%
Makedonija GjP 1+ goals
68%
Makedonija GjP 2+ goals
32%
Makedonija GjP 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Shkupi 1927 (draw refunded)
66%
Makedonija GjP (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shkupi 1927 at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.17 · 110 matches

Makedonija GjP away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.65 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shkupi 1927 attack 1.71 + Makedonija GjP defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.68

Makedonija GjP attack 1.14 + Shkupi 1927 defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Shkupi 1927 scores more
50%
level
24%
Makedonija GjP scores more
26%

Shkupi 1927 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Shkupi 1927 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shkupi 1927 vs Makedonija GjP

Makedonija GjP beat Shkupi 1927 2-0 in First League on September 20, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Čair in Skopje.