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Shkupi 1927 vs KF Gostivari — First League 2019

Shkupi 1927
Shkupi 1927
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
KF Gostivari
KF Gostivari
11/3/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 13Stadion Čair

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Shkupi 192746%
×Draw27%
KF Gostivari27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shkupi 1927
1.42
KF Gostivari
1.02

Shkupi 1927 creates 39% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 31 away

creates per match

Shkupi 1927
1.71
KF Gostivari
0.87

allows per match

Shkupi 1927
1.17
KF Gostivari
1.13

finishing

Shkupi 1927+0.00on par
KF Gostivari+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shkupi 1927 ↓

KF Gostivari →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Shkupi 1927 or draw
73%
Shkupi 1927 or KF Gostivari
73%
Draw or KF Gostivari
54%

Winning margin

Shkupi 1927 wins by 2+
22%
KF Gostivari wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Shkupi 1927 1+ goals
76%
Shkupi 1927 2+ goals
41%
Shkupi 1927 3+ goals
17%
KF Gostivari 1+ goals
64%
KF Gostivari 2+ goals
27%
KF Gostivari 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Shkupi 1927 (draw refunded)
63%
KF Gostivari (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shkupi 1927 at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.17 · 110 matches

KF Gostivari away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.13 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shkupi 1927 attack 1.71 + KF Gostivari defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.42

KF Gostivari attack 0.87 + Shkupi 1927 defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Shkupi 1927 scores more
46%
level
27%
KF Gostivari scores more
27%

Shkupi 1927 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Shkupi 1927 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Shkupi 1927 0–1 KF Gostivari

KF Gostivari beat Shkupi 1927 1-0 in First League on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Čair in Skopje.