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Shkumbini Peqin vs Turbina Cërrik — 1st Division 2019

Shkumbini Peqin
Shkumbini Peqin
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Turbina Cërrik
Turbina Cërrik
4/9/20221st Division1st Division · Round 26Stadiumi Shkumbini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shkumbini Peqin40%
×Draw24%
Turbina Cërrik36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shkumbini Peqin
1.59
Turbina Cërrik
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 52 away

creates per match

Shkumbini Peqin
1.27
Turbina Cërrik
0.83

allows per match

Shkumbini Peqin
2.13
Turbina Cërrik
1.92

finishing

Shkumbini Peqin+0.00on par
Turbina Cërrik+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shkumbini Peqin ↓

Turbina Cërrik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Shkumbini Peqin or draw
64%
Shkumbini Peqin or Turbina Cërrik
76%
Draw or Turbina Cërrik
60%

Winning margin

Shkumbini Peqin wins by 2+
20%
Turbina Cërrik wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Shkumbini Peqin 1+ goals
80%
Shkumbini Peqin 2+ goals
47%
Shkumbini Peqin 3+ goals
21%
Turbina Cërrik 1+ goals
77%
Turbina Cërrik 2+ goals
43%
Turbina Cërrik 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Shkumbini Peqin (draw refunded)
53%
Turbina Cërrik (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shkumbini Peqin at home — creates 1.27, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

Turbina Cërrik away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.92 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shkumbini Peqin attack 1.27 + Turbina Cërrik defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.59

Turbina Cërrik attack 0.83 + Shkumbini Peqin defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Shkumbini Peqin scores more
40%
level
24%
Turbina Cërrik scores more
36%

Shkumbini Peqin at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Shkumbini Peqin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shkumbini Peqin vs Turbina Cërrik

Turbina Cërrik beat Shkumbini Peqin 3-2 in 1st Division on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Stadiumi Shkumbini in Peqin.