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Shkumbini Peqin vs Maliqi — 1st Division 2019

Shkumbini Peqin
Shkumbini Peqin
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Maliqi
Maliqi
10/2/20211st Division1st Division · Round 4Stadiumi Shkumbini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shkumbini Peqin48%
×Draw23%
Maliqi29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shkumbini Peqin
1.85
Maliqi
1.41

Shkumbini Peqin creates 31% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 16 away

creates per match

Shkumbini Peqin
1.27
Maliqi
0.69

allows per match

Shkumbini Peqin
2.13
Maliqi
2.44

finishing

Shkumbini Peqin+0.00on par
Maliqi+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shkumbini Peqin ↓

Maliqi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Shkumbini Peqin or draw
71%
Shkumbini Peqin or Maliqi
77%
Draw or Maliqi
52%

Winning margin

Shkumbini Peqin wins by 2+
26%
Maliqi wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Shkumbini Peqin 1+ goals
84%
Shkumbini Peqin 2+ goals
55%
Shkumbini Peqin 3+ goals
28%
Maliqi 1+ goals
76%
Maliqi 2+ goals
41%
Maliqi 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Shkumbini Peqin (draw refunded)
62%
Maliqi (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shkumbini Peqin at home — creates 1.27, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

Maliqi away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shkumbini Peqin attack 1.27 + Maliqi defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.85

Maliqi attack 0.69 + Shkumbini Peqin defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Shkumbini Peqin scores more
48%
level
23%
Maliqi scores more
29%

Shkumbini Peqin at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Shkumbini Peqin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Shkumbini Peqin 3–1 Maliqi

Shkumbini Peqin beat Maliqi 3-1 in 1st Division on October 2, 2021.

The match was played at Stadiumi Shkumbini in Peqin.