Shkendija 5–1 Voska Sport: Result & Stats

Shkendija

FT

5 – 1

HT: 4 – 0

Voska Sport

9/22/2024

First League · Round 6Ecolog Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Shkendija62%

×Draw22%

Voska Sport15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShkendijaExpected goals in this matchVoska Sport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

0.79

Shkendija

1.85

Voska Sport

0.79

Shkendija creates 134% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 33 away

1.87

creates per match

0.88

0.71

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Shkendija

1.87

Voska Sport

0.88

allows per match

Shkendija

0.71

Voska Sport

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shkendija+0.00on par

Voska Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shkendija ↓

Voska Sport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Shkendija or draw

85%

Shkendija or Voska Sport

78%

Draw or Voska Sport

38%

Winning margin

Shkendija wins by 2+

37%

Voska Sport wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Shkendija 1+ goals

84%

Shkendija 2+ goals

55%

Shkendija 3+ goals

28%

Voska Sport 1+ goals

55%

Voska Sport 2+ goals

19%

Voska Sport 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Shkendija (draw refunded)

80%

Voska Sport (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shkendija at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.71 · 112 matches

Voska Sport away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.82 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shkendija attack 1.87 + Voska Sport defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.85

Voska Sport attack 0.88 + Shkendija defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Shkendija scores more

62%

level

22%

Voska Sport scores more

15%

Shkendija at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Shkendija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff