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Shkendija vs Tikveš — Cup 2020

Shkendija
Shkendijaadvanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tikveš
Tikveš
11/19/2025CupCup · Round of 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Shkendija62%
×Draw23%
Tikveš15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shkendija
1.74
Tikveš
0.72

Shkendija creates 142% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

creates per match

Shkendija
2.38
Tikveš
0.80

allows per match

Shkendija
0.63
Tikveš
1.10

finishing

Shkendija+0.00on par
Tikveš+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shkendija ↓

Tikveš →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Shkendija or draw
85%
Shkendija or Tikveš
77%
Draw or Tikveš
38%

Winning margin

Shkendija wins by 2+
35%
Tikveš wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Shkendija 1+ goals
82%
Shkendija 2+ goals
52%
Shkendija 3+ goals
25%
Tikveš 1+ goals
51%
Tikveš 2+ goals
16%
Tikveš 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Shkendija (draw refunded)
80%
Tikveš (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shkendija at home — creates 2.38, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

Tikveš away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shkendija attack 2.38 + Tikveš defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.74

Tikveš attack 0.80 + Shkendija defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Shkendija scores more
62%
level
23%
Tikveš scores more
15%

Shkendija at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Shkendija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Shkendija 2–0 Tikveš

Shkendija beat Tikveš 2-0 in Cup on November 19, 2025.