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Shkendija vs Sileks — First League 2019

Shkendija
Shkendija
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sileks
Sileks
9/28/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 8Ecolog Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Shkendija51%
×Draw26%
Sileks24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shkendija
1.54
Sileks
0.97

Shkendija creates 59% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 91 away

creates per match

Shkendija
1.87
Sileks
1.24

allows per match

Shkendija
0.71
Sileks
1.20

finishing

Shkendija+0.00on par
Sileks+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shkendija ↓

Sileks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Shkendija or draw
76%
Shkendija or Sileks
74%
Draw or Sileks
49%

Winning margin

Shkendija wins by 2+
26%
Sileks wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Shkendija 1+ goals
79%
Shkendija 2+ goals
45%
Shkendija 3+ goals
20%
Sileks 1+ goals
62%
Sileks 2+ goals
25%
Sileks 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Shkendija (draw refunded)
68%
Sileks (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shkendija at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.71 · 112 matches

Sileks away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.20 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shkendija attack 1.87 + Sileks defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.54

Sileks attack 1.24 + Shkendija defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Shkendija scores more
51%
level
26%
Sileks scores more
24%

Shkendija at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Shkendija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shkendija vs Sileks

Shkendija beat Sileks 2-0 in First League on September 28, 2025.

The match was played at Ecolog Arena in Tetovo.