Shkendija 1–0 Shelbourne: Result & Stats

Shkendija

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Shelbourne

P. Barrett 90' (OG)

10/23/2025

UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 2National Arena Toshe Proeski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Shkendija52%

×Draw31%

Shelbourne17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShkendijaExpected goals in this matchShelbourne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.55

Shkendija

1.19

Shelbourne

0.55

Shkendija creates 116% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

1.20

creates per match

0.50

0.60

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Shkendija

1.20

Shelbourne

0.50

allows per match

Shkendija

0.60

Shelbourne

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shkendija+0.00on par

Shelbourne+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No71
Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shkendija ↓

Shelbourne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–110%

0–23%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

52%48%2.5

25%75%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Shkendija or draw

83%

Shkendija or Shelbourne

69%

Draw or Shelbourne

48%

Winning margin

Shkendija wins by 2+

23%

Shelbourne wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Shkendija 1+ goals

70%

Shkendija 2+ goals

33%

Shkendija 3+ goals

12%

Shelbourne 1+ goals

42%

Shelbourne 2+ goals

11%

Shelbourne 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Shkendija (draw refunded)

75%

Shelbourne (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

18%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shkendija at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.60 · 10 matches

Shelbourne away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shkendija attack 1.20 + Shelbourne defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.19

Shelbourne attack 0.50 + Shkendija defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Shkendija scores more

52%

level

31%

Shelbourne scores more

17%

Shkendija at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Shkendija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

K. Cake

Shkendija · D

7.7

Match Events

12'

Klisman Cake

30'

James Norris

46'

R. Ramadani← A. Zejnullai

46'

60'

60'

65'

70'

74'

77'

77'

V. Krstevski← F. Tamba

82'

A. Coote← K. McInroy

82'

E. Caffrey← J. Henry-Francis

87'

Aleksander Trumci

88'

F. Ademi← E. Krasniqi

90'

P. BarrettOwn goal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShkendijaShelbourne

Overview

58%Possession42%

13Total Shots9

0.46Expected Goals (xG)0.51

4Corners1

14Fouls16

Shots

13Total Shots9

1On Target2

7Off Target4

5Blocked3

5Inside Box4

8Outside Box5

Passing

58%Possession42%

496Total Passes359

422Accurate Passes294

85%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

-0.86Goals Prevented-0.86

Discipline

14Fouls16

3Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1

UEFA Europa Conference League: Shkendija 1–0 Shelbourne

Shkendija beat Shelbourne 1-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on October 23, 2025.

Goals: P. Barrett (90' o.g.).

Shkendija controlled possession (58%) and registered 13 shots to 9.

The match was played at National Arena Toshe Proeski in Skopje.

Shkendija vs Shelbourne — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UEFA Europa Conference League: Shkendija 1–0 Shelbourne