Shkendija 4–1 KF Gostivari: Result & Stats

Shkendija

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

KF Gostivari

4/28/2024

First League · Round 29Ecolog Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Shkendija54%

×Draw26%

KF Gostivari20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShkendijaExpected goals in this matchKF Gostivari

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.79

Shkendija

1.50

KF Gostivari

0.79

Shkendija creates 90% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 31 away

1.87

creates per match

0.87

0.71

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Shkendija

1.87

KF Gostivari

0.87

allows per match

Shkendija

0.71

KF Gostivari

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shkendija+0.00on par

KF Gostivari+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shkendija ↓

KF Gostivari →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Shkendija or draw

80%

Shkendija or KF Gostivari

74%

Draw or KF Gostivari

46%

Winning margin

Shkendija wins by 2+

28%

KF Gostivari wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Shkendija 1+ goals

78%

Shkendija 2+ goals

44%

Shkendija 3+ goals

19%

KF Gostivari 1+ goals

55%

KF Gostivari 2+ goals

19%

KF Gostivari 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Shkendija (draw refunded)

73%

KF Gostivari (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shkendija at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.71 · 112 matches

KF Gostivari away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.13 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shkendija attack 1.87 + KF Gostivari defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.50

KF Gostivari attack 0.87 + Shkendija defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Shkendija scores more

54%

level

26%

KF Gostivari scores more

20%

Shkendija at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Shkendija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff