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Shkendija vs Besa Dobërdoll — First League 2019

Shkendija
Shkendija
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Besa Dobërdoll
Besa Dobërdoll
10/30/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 12Ecolog Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Shkendija62%
×Draw22%
Besa Dobërdoll15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shkendija
1.81
Besa Dobërdoll
0.76

Shkendija creates 138% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 17 away

creates per match

Shkendija
1.87
Besa Dobërdoll
0.82

allows per match

Shkendija
0.71
Besa Dobërdoll
1.76

finishing

Shkendija+0.00on par
Besa Dobërdoll+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shkendija ↓

Besa Dobërdoll →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Shkendija or draw
85%
Shkendija or Besa Dobërdoll
78%
Draw or Besa Dobërdoll
38%

Winning margin

Shkendija wins by 2+
36%
Besa Dobërdoll wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Shkendija 1+ goals
84%
Shkendija 2+ goals
54%
Shkendija 3+ goals
27%
Besa Dobërdoll 1+ goals
53%
Besa Dobërdoll 2+ goals
18%
Besa Dobërdoll 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Shkendija (draw refunded)
80%
Besa Dobërdoll (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shkendija at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.71 · 112 matches

Besa Dobërdoll away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shkendija attack 1.87 + Besa Dobërdoll defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.81

Besa Dobërdoll attack 0.82 + Shkendija defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Shkendija scores more
62%
level
22%
Besa Dobërdoll scores more
15%

Shkendija at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Shkendija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Shkendija 2–1 Besa Dobërdoll

Shkendija beat Besa Dobërdoll 2-1 in First League on October 30, 2024.

The match was played at Ecolog Arena in Tetovo.