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Shirak vs Lori — Premier League 2019

Shirak
Shirak
AWD
3 – 0
Lori
Lori
4/23/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 21Gyumri City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Shirak42%
×Draw29%
Lori30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shirak
1.24
Lori
1.00

Shirak creates 24% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 27 away

creates per match

Shirak
0.82
Lori
0.67

allows per match

Shirak
1.32
Lori
1.67

finishing

Shirak+0.00on par
Lori+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shirak ↓

Lori →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Shirak or draw
70%
Shirak or Lori
71%
Draw or Lori
58%

Winning margin

Shirak wins by 2+
18%
Lori wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Shirak 1+ goals
71%
Shirak 2+ goals
35%
Shirak 3+ goals
13%
Lori 1+ goals
63%
Lori 2+ goals
26%
Lori 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Shirak (draw refunded)
58%
Lori (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shirak at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.32 · 90 matches

Lori away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shirak attack 0.82 + Lori defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.24

Lori attack 0.67 + Shirak defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Shirak scores more
42%
level
29%
Lori scores more
30%

Shirak at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Shirak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Shirak host Lori

April 23, 2021: Shirak take on Lori in Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Shirak host Lori at Gyumri City Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.