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Shirak vs Ararat — Premier League 2019

Shirak
Shirak
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Ararat
Ararat
4/8/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 20Gyumri City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Shirak36%
×Draw27%
Ararat36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shirak
1.23
Ararat
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 107 away

creates per match

Shirak
0.82
Ararat
1.14

allows per match

Shirak
1.32
Ararat
1.64

finishing

Shirak+0.00on par
Ararat+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shirak ↓

Ararat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Shirak or draw
64%
Shirak or Ararat
73%
Draw or Ararat
64%

Winning margin

Shirak wins by 2+
16%
Ararat wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Shirak 1+ goals
71%
Shirak 2+ goals
35%
Shirak 3+ goals
13%
Ararat 1+ goals
71%
Ararat 2+ goals
35%
Ararat 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Shirak (draw refunded)
50%
Ararat (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shirak at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.32 · 90 matches

Ararat away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.64 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shirak attack 0.82 + Ararat defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.23

Ararat attack 1.14 + Shirak defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Shirak scores more
36%
level
27%
Ararat scores more
36%

Shirak at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Shirak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shirak vs Ararat

Ararat beat Shirak 3-1 in Premier League on April 8, 2025.

The match was played at Gyumri City Stadium in Gyumri.