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Shirak II vs Sevan — First League 2019

Shirak II
Shirak II
FT
0 – 3
Sevan
Sevan
12/2/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 15Gyumri City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Shirak II26%
×Draw22%
Sevan52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shirak II
1.33
Sevan
1.96

Sevan creates 47% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 28 away

creates per match

Shirak II
1.35
Sevan
2.04

allows per match

Shirak II
1.88
Sevan
1.32

finishing

Shirak II+0.00on par
Sevan+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shirak II ↓

Sevan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Shirak II or draw
48%
Shirak II or Sevan
78%
Draw or Sevan
74%

Winning margin

Shirak II wins by 2+
11%
Sevan wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Shirak II 1+ goals
74%
Shirak II 2+ goals
38%
Shirak II 3+ goals
15%
Sevan 1+ goals
86%
Sevan 2+ goals
58%
Sevan 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Shirak II (draw refunded)
33%
Sevan (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shirak II at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.88 · 85 matches

Sevan away — creates 2.04, concedes 1.32 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shirak II attack 1.35 + Sevan defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.33

Sevan attack 2.04 + Shirak II defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Shirak II scores more
26%
level
22%
Sevan scores more
52%

Sevan at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sevan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shirak II vs Sevan

Sevan beat Shirak II 3-0 in First League on December 2, 2020.

The match was played at Gyumri City Stadium in Gyumri.