Shirak II 2–2 Pyunik II: Result & Stats

Shirak II

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Pyunik II

5/13/2025

First League · Round 24Gyumri City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Shirak II41%

×Draw23%

Pyunik II37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shirak IIExpected goals in this matchPyunik II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.67

Shirak II

1.76

Pyunik II

1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 98 away

1.35

creates per match

1.46

1.88

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

Shirak II

1.35

Pyunik II

1.46

allows per match

Shirak II

1.88

Pyunik II

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shirak II+0.00on par

Pyunik II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shirak II ↓

Pyunik II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Shirak II or draw

63%

Shirak II or Pyunik II

77%

Draw or Pyunik II

59%

Winning margin

Shirak II wins by 2+

21%

Pyunik II wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Shirak II 1+ goals

83%

Shirak II 2+ goals

52%

Shirak II 3+ goals

26%

Pyunik II 1+ goals

81%

Pyunik II 2+ goals

50%

Pyunik II 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Shirak II (draw refunded)

52%

Pyunik II (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shirak II at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.88 · 85 matches

Pyunik II away — creates 1.46, concedes 2.16 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shirak II attack 1.35 + Pyunik II defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.76

Pyunik II attack 1.46 + Shirak II defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Shirak II scores more

41%

level

23%

Pyunik II scores more

37%

Shirak II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Shirak II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff