Shirak II 2–2 Noravank: Result & Stats

Shirak II

FT

2 – 2

Noravank

2/28/2021

First League · Round 18Gyumri Football Academy - Artificial Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Shirak II31%

×Draw23%

Noravank46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shirak IIExpected goals in this matchNoravank

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.79

Shirak II

1.43

Noravank

1.79

Noravank creates 25% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 14 away

1.35

creates per match

1.71

1.88

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Shirak II

1.35

Noravank

1.71

allows per match

Shirak II

1.88

Noravank

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shirak II+0.00on par

Noravank+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shirak II ↓

Noravank →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Shirak II or draw

54%

Shirak II or Noravank

77%

Draw or Noravank

69%

Winning margin

Shirak II wins by 2+

14%

Noravank wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Shirak II 1+ goals

76%

Shirak II 2+ goals

42%

Shirak II 3+ goals

17%

Noravank 1+ goals

83%

Noravank 2+ goals

53%

Noravank 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Shirak II (draw refunded)

40%

Noravank (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shirak II at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.88 · 85 matches

Noravank away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shirak II attack 1.35 + Noravank defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.43

Noravank attack 1.71 + Shirak II defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Shirak II scores more

31%

level

23%

Noravank scores more

46%

Noravank at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Noravank will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff