Shirak II 2–2 Nikarm: Result & Stats | First League

Shirak II

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Nikarm

10/4/2024

First League · Round 1Gyumri City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Shirak II68%

×Draw16%

Nikarm16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shirak IIExpected goals in this matchNikarm

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.81

1.30

Shirak II

2.81

Nikarm

1.30

Shirak II creates 116% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 26 away

1.35

creates per match

0.73

1.88

allows per match

4.27

creates per match

Shirak II

1.35

Nikarm

0.73

allows per match

Shirak II

1.88

Nikarm

4.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shirak II+0.00on par

Nikarm+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shirak II ↓

Nikarm →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Shirak II or draw

84%

Shirak II or Nikarm

84%

Draw or Nikarm

32%

Winning margin

Shirak II wins by 2+

48%

Nikarm wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Shirak II 1+ goals

94%

Shirak II 2+ goals

76%

Shirak II 3+ goals

52%

Nikarm 1+ goals

73%

Nikarm 2+ goals

37%

Nikarm 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Shirak II (draw refunded)

81%

Nikarm (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shirak II at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.88 · 85 matches

Nikarm away — creates 0.73, concedes 4.27 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shirak II attack 1.35 + Nikarm defence 4.27 → ÷2 → 2.81

Nikarm attack 0.73 + Shirak II defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Shirak II scores more

68%

level

16%

Nikarm scores more

16%

Shirak II at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Shirak II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff