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Shirak II vs Dilijan — First League 2019

Shirak II
Shirak II
FT
8 – 2
Dilijan
Dilijan
9/16/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 7Gyumri City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Shirak II63%
×Draw17%
Dilijan19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shirak II
2.75
Dilijan
1.48

Shirak II creates 86% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 13 away

creates per match

Shirak II
1.35
Dilijan
1.08

allows per match

Shirak II
1.88
Dilijan
4.15

finishing

Shirak II+0.00on par
Dilijan+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shirak II ↓

Dilijan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Shirak II or draw
81%
Shirak II or Dilijan
83%
Draw or Dilijan
37%

Winning margin

Shirak II wins by 2+
43%
Dilijan wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Shirak II 1+ goals
93%
Shirak II 2+ goals
75%
Shirak II 3+ goals
51%
Dilijan 1+ goals
77%
Dilijan 2+ goals
43%
Dilijan 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Shirak II (draw refunded)
77%
Dilijan (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shirak II at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.88 · 85 matches

Dilijan away — creates 1.08, concedes 4.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shirak II attack 1.35 + Dilijan defence 4.15 → ÷2 → 2.75

Dilijan attack 1.08 + Shirak II defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Shirak II scores more
63%
level
17%
Dilijan scores more
19%

Shirak II at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Shirak II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Shirak II 8–2 Dilijan

Shirak II beat Dilijan 8-2 in First League on September 16, 2019.

The match was played at Gyumri City Stadium in Gyumri.