Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Shirak II vs Banants II — First League 2019

Shirak II
Shirak II
FT
5 – 3
HT: 3 – 2
Banants II
Banants II
5/6/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 27

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Shirak II34%
×Draw23%
Banants II43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shirak II
1.57
Banants II
1.79

Banants II creates 14% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 99 away

creates per match

Shirak II
1.35
Banants II
1.71

allows per match

Shirak II
1.88
Banants II
1.79

finishing

Shirak II+0.00on par
Banants II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shirak II ↓

Banants II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Shirak II or draw
57%
Shirak II or Banants II
77%
Draw or Banants II
66%

Winning margin

Shirak II wins by 2+
16%
Banants II wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Shirak II 1+ goals
79%
Shirak II 2+ goals
46%
Shirak II 3+ goals
21%
Banants II 1+ goals
83%
Banants II 2+ goals
53%
Banants II 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Shirak II (draw refunded)
44%
Banants II (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shirak II at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.88 · 85 matches

Banants II away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.79 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shirak II attack 1.35 + Banants II defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.57

Banants II attack 1.71 + Shirak II defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Shirak II scores more
34%
level
23%
Banants II scores more
43%

Banants II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Banants II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Shirak II 5–3 Banants II

Shirak II beat Banants II 5-3 in First League on May 6, 2026.