Shinnik Yaroslavl 1–0 Znamya Truda: Result & Stats

Shinnik Yaroslavl

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Znamya Truda

10/19/2021

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 17Stadion Shinnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl63%

×Draw22%

Znamya Truda15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shinnik YaroslavlExpected goals in this matchZnamya Truda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

0.76

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.86

Znamya Truda

0.76

Shinnik Yaroslavl creates 145% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 68 away

2.13

creates per match

1.07

0.44

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl

2.13

Znamya Truda

1.07

allows per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl

0.44

Znamya Truda

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Znamya Truda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shinnik Yaroslavl ↓

Znamya Truda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Shinnik Yaroslavl or draw

85%

Shinnik Yaroslavl or Znamya Truda

78%

Draw or Znamya Truda

37%

Winning margin

Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+

38%

Znamya Truda wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals

84%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals

55%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals

28%

Znamya Truda 1+ goals

53%

Znamya Truda 2+ goals

18%

Znamya Truda 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)

81%

Znamya Truda (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shinnik Yaroslavl at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.44 · 16 matches

Znamya Truda away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.59 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 2.13 + Znamya Truda defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.86

Znamya Truda attack 1.07 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more

63%

level

22%

Znamya Truda scores more

15%

Shinnik Yaroslavl at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Shinnik Yaroslavl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff