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Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Urozhay — Cup 2019

Shinnik Yaroslavl
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Urozhay
Urozhay
11/2/2022CupCup · Regions Path - 5th RoundStadion Shinnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl39%
×Draw29%
Urozhay31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.15
Urozhay
1.00

Shinnik Yaroslavl creates 15% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.50
Urozhay
1.00

allows per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.00
Urozhay
1.80

finishing

Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par
Urozhay+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shinnik Yaroslavl ↓

Urozhay →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Shinnik Yaroslavl or draw
69%
Shinnik Yaroslavl or Urozhay
71%
Draw or Urozhay
61%

Winning margin

Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+
16%
Urozhay wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals
68%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals
32%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals
11%
Urozhay 1+ goals
63%
Urozhay 2+ goals
26%
Urozhay 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)
55%
Urozhay (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shinnik Yaroslavl at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Urozhay away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 0.50 + Urozhay defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.15

Urozhay attack 1.00 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more
39%
level
29%
Urozhay scores more
31%

Shinnik Yaroslavl at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Shinnik Yaroslavl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Shinnik Yaroslavl 0–0 Urozhay

Shinnik Yaroslavl and Urozhay drew 0-0 in Cup on November 2, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Shinnik in Yaroslavl'.