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Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Spartak Kostroma — First League 2024

Shinnik Yaroslavl
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Preview
15:00
Spartak Kostroma
Spartak Kostroma
10/24/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 15Stadion Shinnik
38%
Spartak Kostroma
model favours
35%27%38%

Shinnik Yaroslavl win just 14% against the top half (vs 41% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl35%
×Draw27%
Spartak Kostroma38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.24
Spartak Kostroma
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 17 away

creates per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.07
Spartak Kostroma
1.53

allows per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.04
Spartak Kostroma
1.41

finishing

Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par
Spartak Kostroma+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shinnik Yaroslavl ↓

Spartak Kostroma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Shinnik Yaroslavl or draw
62%
Shinnik Yaroslavl or Spartak Kostroma
73%
Draw or Spartak Kostroma
65%

Winning margin

Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+
15%
Spartak Kostroma wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals
71%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals
35%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals
13%
Spartak Kostroma 1+ goals
72%
Spartak Kostroma 2+ goals
37%
Spartak Kostroma 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)
48%
Spartak Kostroma (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shinnik Yaroslavl at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.04 · 46 matches

Spartak Kostroma away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 1.07 + Spartak Kostroma defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.24

Spartak Kostroma attack 1.53 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more
35%
level
27%
Spartak Kostroma scores more
38%

Spartak Kostroma at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Spartak Kostroma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Yaroslavl
DDDDW
Kostroma
WLLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Shinnik Yaroslavl face Spartak Kostroma (First League)

First League returns with Shinnik Yaroslavl hosting Spartak Kostroma. Match starts October 24, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Shinnik Yaroslavl host Spartak Kostroma at Stadion Shinnik.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.