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Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Rubin — First League 2018

Shinnik Yaroslavl
Shinnik Yaroslavl
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rubin
Rubin
9/25/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 11Stadion Shinnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl30%
×Draw31%
Rubin39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.89
Rubin
1.06

Rubin creates 19% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 17 away

creates per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.13
Rubin
1.06

allows per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.07
Rubin
0.65

finishing

Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par
Rubin+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shinnik Yaroslavl ↓

Rubin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Shinnik Yaroslavl or draw
61%
Shinnik Yaroslavl or Rubin
69%
Draw or Rubin
70%

Winning margin

Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+
10%
Rubin wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals
59%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals
22%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals
6%
Rubin 1+ goals
65%
Rubin 2+ goals
29%
Rubin 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)
43%
Rubin (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shinnik Yaroslavl at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.07 · 122 matches

Rubin away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 1.13 + Rubin defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.89

Rubin attack 1.06 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more
30%
level
31%
Rubin scores more
39%

Rubin at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Rubin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Shinnik Yaroslavl 1–0 Rubin

Shinnik Yaroslavl beat Rubin 1-0 in First League on September 25, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Shinnik in Yaroslavl'.