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Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Orenburg — First League 2018

Shinnik Yaroslavl
Shinnik Yaroslavl
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Orenburg
Orenburg
3/6/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 28Shinnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl28%
×Draw27%
Orenburg45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.04
Orenburg
1.39

Orenburg creates 34% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 40 away

creates per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.13
Orenburg
1.70

allows per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.07
Orenburg
0.95

finishing

Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par
Orenburg+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shinnik Yaroslavl ↓

Orenburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Shinnik Yaroslavl or draw
55%
Shinnik Yaroslavl or Orenburg
73%
Draw or Orenburg
72%

Winning margin

Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+
11%
Orenburg wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals
65%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals
28%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals
9%
Orenburg 1+ goals
75%
Orenburg 2+ goals
40%
Orenburg 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)
39%
Orenburg (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shinnik Yaroslavl at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.07 · 122 matches

Orenburg away — creates 1.70, concedes 0.95 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 1.13 + Orenburg defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.04

Orenburg attack 1.70 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more
28%
level
27%
Orenburg scores more
45%

Orenburg at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Orenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Shinnik Yaroslavl 1–4 Orenburg

Orenburg beat Shinnik Yaroslavl 4-1 in First League on March 6, 2021.

The match was played at Shinnik in Yaroslavl.