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Shinnik Yaroslavl vs FK Sokol Saratov — First League 2018

Shinnik Yaroslavl
Shinnik Yaroslavl
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FK Sokol Saratov
FK Sokol Saratov
11/23/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 20Stadion Shinnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl46%
×Draw28%
FK Sokol Saratov26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.34
FK Sokol Saratov
0.92

Shinnik Yaroslavl creates 46% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 51 away

creates per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.13
FK Sokol Saratov
0.76

allows per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.07
FK Sokol Saratov
1.55

finishing

Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par
FK Sokol Saratov+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shinnik Yaroslavl ↓

FK Sokol Saratov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Shinnik Yaroslavl or draw
74%
Shinnik Yaroslavl or FK Sokol Saratov
72%
Draw or FK Sokol Saratov
54%

Winning margin

Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+
22%
FK Sokol Saratov wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals
74%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals
39%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals
15%
FK Sokol Saratov 1+ goals
60%
FK Sokol Saratov 2+ goals
23%
FK Sokol Saratov 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)
64%
FK Sokol Saratov (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shinnik Yaroslavl at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.07 · 122 matches

FK Sokol Saratov away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.55 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 1.13 + FK Sokol Saratov defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.34

FK Sokol Saratov attack 0.76 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more
46%
level
28%
FK Sokol Saratov scores more
26%

Shinnik Yaroslavl at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Shinnik Yaroslavl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Shinnik Yaroslavl 0–0 FK Sokol Saratov

Shinnik Yaroslavl and FK Sokol Saratov drew 0-0 in First League on November 23, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Shinnik in Yaroslavl.