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Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Fakel Voronezh — First League 2018

Shinnik Yaroslavl
Shinnik Yaroslavl
CANC
22:00
Fakel Voronezh
Fakel Voronezh
5/5/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 36

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl38%
×Draw28%
Fakel Voronezh34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.22
Fakel Voronezh
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 122 home / 89 away

creates per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.13
Fakel Voronezh
1.20

allows per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.07
Fakel Voronezh
1.31

finishing

Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par
Fakel Voronezh+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shinnik Yaroslavl ↓

Fakel Voronezh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Shinnik Yaroslavl or draw
66%
Shinnik Yaroslavl or Fakel Voronezh
72%
Draw or Fakel Voronezh
62%

Winning margin

Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+
16%
Fakel Voronezh wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals
70%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals
34%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals
12%
Fakel Voronezh 1+ goals
68%
Fakel Voronezh 2+ goals
32%
Fakel Voronezh 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)
53%
Fakel Voronezh (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shinnik Yaroslavl at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.07 · 122 matches

Fakel Voronezh away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.31 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 1.13 + Fakel Voronezh defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.22

Fakel Voronezh attack 1.20 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more
38%
level
28%
Fakel Voronezh scores more
34%

Shinnik Yaroslavl at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Shinnik Yaroslavl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Shinnik Yaroslavl face Fakel Voronezh (First League)

First League returns with Shinnik Yaroslavl hosting Fakel Voronezh. Match starts May 5, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.