Shinnik Yaroslavl 0–0 Chayka: Result & Stats | Cup

Shinnik Yaroslavl

Pens

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Chayka

10/30/2024

Cup · Regions Path - 6th RoundStadion Shinnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl24%

×Draw27%

Chayka49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shinnik YaroslavlExpected goals in this matchChayka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.92

1.42

Shinnik Yaroslavl

0.92

Chayka

1.42

Chayka creates 54% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

0.50

creates per match

1.83

1.00

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl

0.50

Chayka

1.83

allows per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.00

Chayka

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Chayka+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shinnik Yaroslavl ↓

Chayka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–114%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Shinnik Yaroslavl or draw

51%

Shinnik Yaroslavl or Chayka

73%

Draw or Chayka

76%

Winning margin

Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+

8%

Chayka wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals

60%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals

23%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals

7%

Chayka 1+ goals

76%

Chayka 2+ goals

41%

Chayka 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)

33%

Chayka (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shinnik Yaroslavl at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Chayka away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 0.50 + Chayka defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.92

Chayka attack 1.83 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more

24%

level

27%

Chayka scores more

49%

Chayka at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Chayka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

R. Kul

46'

A. Evdokimov← K. Ibragimov

61'

D. Samoylov← Z. Fedorov

61'

A. Malakhov← L. Skvortsov

61'

J. John← P. Shakuro

67'

D. Pelikh← A. Ivashin

67'

V. Rudenko← Y. Arbuzov

69'

G. Yakushevich

72'

T. Zhamaletdinov← M. Sultonov

72'

D. Sukhomlinov← V. Zinkov

83'

D. Chernyakov← M. Bammatgereev

83'

N. Karmaev← A. Nesterov

86'

D. Chernyakov

Shinnik

Chayka

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: D. Cheryshev

61'▲D. Samoylov←▼Z. Fedorov

61'▲A. Malakhov←▼L. Skvortsov

61'▲J. John←▼P. Shakuro

72'▲T. Zhamaletdinov←▼M. Sultonov

72'▲D. Sukhomlinov←▼V. Zinkov

Shinnik Yaroslavl substitutes

SamoylovMalakhovJohnZhamaletdinovSukhomlinov

Manager: E. Kaleshin

46'▲A. Evdokimov←▼K. Ibragimov

67'▲D. Pelikh←▼A. Ivashin

67'▲V. Rudenko←▼Y. Arbuzov

83'▲D. Chernyakov←▼M. Bammatgereev

83'▲N. Karmaev←▼A. Nesterov

Chayka substitutes

EvdokimovPelikhRudenkoChernyakovKarmaev