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Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Baltika — First League 2018

Shinnik Yaroslavl
Shinnik Yaroslavl
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Baltika
Baltika
11/25/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 24Stadion Shinnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl32%
×Draw28%
Baltika39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.06
Baltika
1.21

Baltika creates 14% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 109 away

creates per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.13
Baltika
1.34

allows per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.07
Baltika
1.00

finishing

Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par
Baltika+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shinnik Yaroslavl ↓

Baltika →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Shinnik Yaroslavl or draw
61%
Shinnik Yaroslavl or Baltika
72%
Draw or Baltika
68%

Winning margin

Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+
12%
Baltika wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals
65%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals
29%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals
9%
Baltika 1+ goals
70%
Baltika 2+ goals
34%
Baltika 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)
45%
Baltika (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shinnik Yaroslavl at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.07 · 122 matches

Baltika away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.00 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 1.13 + Baltika defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Baltika attack 1.34 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more
32%
level
28%
Baltika scores more
39%

Baltika at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Baltika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Baltika

Baltika beat Shinnik Yaroslavl 3-1 in First League on November 25, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Shinnik in Yaroslavl'.