Shinnik Yaroslavl 3–3 Alaniya Vladikavkaz

Shinnik Yaroslavl

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 2

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

D. Samoylov 68', 33'

V. Aleynikov 14'

B. Khadartsev 90' (pen)

B. Gurtsiev 39'

I. Mashukov 16'

11/6/2023

First League · Round 17Stadion Shinnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl38%

×Draw28%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shinnik YaroslavlExpected goals in this matchAlaniya Vladikavkaz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.16

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.23

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 122 home / 70 away

1.13

creates per match

1.24

1.07

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.13

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.24

allows per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.07

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Alaniya Vladikavkaz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shinnik Yaroslavl ↓

Alaniya Vladikavkaz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Shinnik Yaroslavl or draw

66%

Shinnik Yaroslavl or Alaniya Vladikavkaz

72%

Draw or Alaniya Vladikavkaz

62%

Winning margin

Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+

16%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals

71%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals

35%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals

13%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1+ goals

69%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2+ goals

32%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)

52%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shinnik Yaroslavl at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.07 · 122 matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.33 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 1.13 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Alaniya Vladikavkaz attack 1.24 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more

38%

level

28%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz scores more

34%

Shinnik Yaroslavl at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Shinnik Yaroslavl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

16'

32'

33'

39'

40'

46'

A. Bagaev← S. Kachmazov

68'

D. Samoylov

69'

I. Sokolov← I. Andreev

72'

Roman Emelyanov

76'

M. Sukhoruchenko← R. Daurov

76'

A. Khabalov← N. Giorgobiani

76'

V. Tsarukyan← A. Chochiev

78'

A. Stavpets← D. Samoylov

78'

D. Guz← D. Sukhomlinov

83'

B. Khadartsev← V. Krotov

90+1'

M. Gashchenkov← V. Aleynikov

90'

B. KhadartsevPenalty

Statistics

ShinnikAlaniya

Overview

3Corners3

Discipline

2Yellow Cards1