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Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Alaniya II — First League 2018

Shinnik Yaroslavl
Shinnik Yaroslavl
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Alaniya II
Alaniya II
4/11/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 36Shinnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl30%
×Draw29%
Alaniya II41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.01
Alaniya II
1.23

Alaniya II creates 22% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 21 away

creates per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.13
Alaniya II
1.38

allows per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.07
Alaniya II
0.90

finishing

Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par
Alaniya II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shinnik Yaroslavl ↓

Alaniya II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Shinnik Yaroslavl or draw
59%
Shinnik Yaroslavl or Alaniya II
71%
Draw or Alaniya II
70%

Winning margin

Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+
11%
Alaniya II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals
64%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals
27%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals
8%
Alaniya II 1+ goals
71%
Alaniya II 2+ goals
35%
Alaniya II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)
42%
Alaniya II (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shinnik Yaroslavl at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.07 · 122 matches

Alaniya II away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.90 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 1.13 + Alaniya II defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.01

Alaniya II attack 1.38 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more
30%
level
29%
Alaniya II scores more
41%

Alaniya II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Alaniya II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Alaniya II

Alaniya II beat Shinnik Yaroslavl 1-0 in First League on April 11, 2021.

The match was played at Shinnik in Yaroslavl.