Shinnik Yaroslavl 1–1 Akhmat Grozny: Result & Stats

Shinnik Yaroslavl

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Akhmat Grozny

P. Evseev 90+3'

I. Alsultanov 54'

10/21/2020

Cup · Group Stage - 3Stadion Shinnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl32%

×Draw29%

Akhmat Grozny39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shinnik YaroslavlExpected goals in this matchAkhmat Grozny

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.15

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.01

Akhmat Grozny

1.15

Akhmat Grozny creates 14% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 21 away

0.50

creates per match

1.29

1.00

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl

0.50

Akhmat Grozny

1.29

allows per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.00

Akhmat Grozny

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Akhmat Grozny+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shinnik Yaroslavl ↓

Akhmat Grozny →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Shinnik Yaroslavl or draw

61%

Shinnik Yaroslavl or Akhmat Grozny

71%

Draw or Akhmat Grozny

68%

Winning margin

Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+

12%

Akhmat Grozny wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals

64%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals

27%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals

8%

Akhmat Grozny 1+ goals

68%

Akhmat Grozny 2+ goals

32%

Akhmat Grozny 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)

45%

Akhmat Grozny (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shinnik Yaroslavl at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Akhmat Grozny away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.52 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 0.50 + Akhmat Grozny defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.01

Akhmat Grozny attack 1.29 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more

32%

level

29%

Akhmat Grozny scores more

39%

Akhmat Grozny at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Akhmat Grozny will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

18'

19'

34'

37'

39'

46'

I. Alsultanov← G. Melkadze

46'

N. Karmaev← A. Putsko

54'

I. Alsultanov

55'

A. Betyuzhnov← N. Matskharashvili

57'

I. Maslennikov← N. Malyarov

60'

E. Kharin← L. Sadulaev

66'

A. Kadyrov← K. Kadyrov

66'

A. Shvets← A. Semenov

69'

N. Dorofeev

70'

N. Golub← S. Samodin

70'

P. Evseev← A. Shchadin

70'

V. Zinkov← I. Oleynikov

78'

A. Shvets

90+3'

P. Evseev

Shinnik

Akhmat

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Pobegalov

55'▲A. Betyuzhnov←▼N. Matskharashvili

57'▲I. Maslennikov←▼N. Malyarov

70'▲N. Golub←▼S. Samodin

70'▲P. Evseev←▼A. Shchadin

70'▲V. Zinkov←▼I. Oleynikov

Shinnik Yaroslavl substitutes

BetyuzhnovMaslennikovGolubEvseevZinkovTananeevNasedkinNizamutdinovStrelovZirikov

Manager: A. Talalaev

46'▲I. Alsultanov←▼G. Melkadze

46'▲N. Karmaev←▼A. Putsko

60'▲E. Kharin←▼L. Sadulaev

66'▲A. Kadyrov←▼K. Kadyrov

66'▲A. Shvets←▼A. Semenov

Akhmat Grozny substitutes

AlsultanovKarmaevKharinKadyrovShvetsPolyarusSheliaBystrovIvanov

Cup: Shinnik Yaroslavl 1–1 Akhmat Grozny

Shinnik Yaroslavl and Akhmat Grozny drew 1-1 in Cup on October 21, 2020.

Goals: I. Alsultanov (54'), P. Evseev (90+3').

The match was played at Stadion Shinnik in Yaroslavl'.

Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Akhmat Grozny — Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Cup: Shinnik Yaroslavl 1–1 Akhmat Grozny