Shimshon Kafr Qasim 0–0 Maccabi Shaarayim

Shimshon Kafr Qasim

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Maccabi Shaarayim

9/22/2023

League #496 · South - 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Shimshon Kafr Qasim46%

×Draw27%

Maccabi Shaarayim26%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shimshon Kafr QasimExpected goals in this matchMaccabi Shaarayim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

0.96

Shimshon Kafr Qasim

1.37

Maccabi Shaarayim

0.96

Shimshon Kafr Qasim creates 43% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 22 away

1.33

creates per match

1.09

0.83

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Shimshon Kafr Qasim

1.33

Maccabi Shaarayim

1.09

allows per match

Shimshon Kafr Qasim

0.83

Maccabi Shaarayim

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shimshon Kafr Qasim+0.00on par

Maccabi Shaarayim+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shimshon Kafr Qasim ↓

Maccabi Shaarayim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Shimshon Kafr Qasim or draw

74%

Shimshon Kafr Qasim or Maccabi Shaarayim

73%

Draw or Maccabi Shaarayim

54%

Winning margin

Shimshon Kafr Qasim wins by 2+

22%

Maccabi Shaarayim wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Shimshon Kafr Qasim 1+ goals

75%

Shimshon Kafr Qasim 2+ goals

40%

Shimshon Kafr Qasim 3+ goals

16%

Maccabi Shaarayim 1+ goals

62%

Maccabi Shaarayim 2+ goals

25%

Maccabi Shaarayim 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Shimshon Kafr Qasim (draw refunded)

64%

Maccabi Shaarayim (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shimshon Kafr Qasim at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Maccabi Shaarayim away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.41 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shimshon Kafr Qasim attack 1.33 + Maccabi Shaarayim defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.37

Maccabi Shaarayim attack 1.09 + Shimshon Kafr Qasim defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Shimshon Kafr Qasim scores more

46%

level

27%

Maccabi Shaarayim scores more

26%

Shimshon Kafr Qasim at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Shimshon Kafr Qasim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff