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Shimizu S-pulse vs Yokohama FC — J1 League 2018

Shimizu S-pulse
Shimizu S-pulse
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Yokohama FC
Yokohama FC
5/9/2021J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 13IAI Stadium Nihondaira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Shimizu S-pulse46%
×Draw25%
Yokohama FC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shimizu S-pulse
1.60
Yokohama FC
1.22

Shimizu S-pulse creates 31% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 72 away

creates per match

Shimizu S-pulse
1.34
Yokohama FC
0.78

allows per match

Shimizu S-pulse
1.66
Yokohama FC
1.85

finishing

Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par
Yokohama FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shimizu S-pulse ↓

Yokohama FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Shimizu S-pulse or draw
71%
Shimizu S-pulse or Yokohama FC
75%
Draw or Yokohama FC
54%

Winning margin

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+
24%
Yokohama FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals
80%
Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals
47%
Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals
22%
Yokohama FC 1+ goals
70%
Yokohama FC 2+ goals
34%
Yokohama FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)
61%
Yokohama FC (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shimizu S-pulse at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.66 · 114 matches

Yokohama FC away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.85 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.34 + Yokohama FC defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.60

Yokohama FC attack 0.78 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Shimizu S-pulse scores more
46%
level
25%
Yokohama FC scores more
29%

Shimizu S-pulse at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Shimizu S-pulse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J1 League: Shimizu S-pulse 1–1 Yokohama FC

Shimizu S-pulse and Yokohama FC drew 1-1 in J1 League on May 9, 2021.

The match was played at IAI Stadium Nihondaira in Shizuoka.