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Shimizu S-pulse vs Renofa Yamaguchi — J2 League 2018

Shimizu S-pulse
Shimizu S-pulse
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Renofa Yamaguchi
Renofa Yamaguchi
8/12/2023J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 30IAI Stadium Nihondaira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Shimizu S-pulse60%
×Draw23%
Renofa Yamaguchi17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shimizu S-pulse
1.76
Renofa Yamaguchi
0.81

Shimizu S-pulse creates 117% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 168 away

creates per match

Shimizu S-pulse
2.02
Renofa Yamaguchi
0.98

allows per match

Shimizu S-pulse
0.64
Renofa Yamaguchi
1.50

finishing

Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par
Renofa Yamaguchi+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shimizu S-pulse ↓

Renofa Yamaguchi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Shimizu S-pulse or draw
83%
Shimizu S-pulse or Renofa Yamaguchi
77%
Draw or Renofa Yamaguchi
40%

Winning margin

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+
34%
Renofa Yamaguchi wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals
83%
Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals
52%
Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals
26%
Renofa Yamaguchi 1+ goals
56%
Renofa Yamaguchi 2+ goals
19%
Renofa Yamaguchi 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)
78%
Renofa Yamaguchi (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shimizu S-pulse at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.64 · 44 matches

Renofa Yamaguchi away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.50 · 168 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shimizu S-pulse attack 2.02 + Renofa Yamaguchi defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.76

Renofa Yamaguchi attack 0.98 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Shimizu S-pulse scores more
60%
level
23%
Renofa Yamaguchi scores more
17%

Shimizu S-pulse at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Shimizu S-pulse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shimizu S-pulse vs Renofa Yamaguchi

Shimizu S-pulse beat Renofa Yamaguchi 1-0 in J2 League on August 12, 2023.

The match was played at IAI Stadium Nihondaira in Shizuoka.