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Shikun Vatikim Ramat Gan vs Holon Yermiyahu — State Cup 2019

Shikun Vatikim Ramat Gan
Shikun Vatikim Ramat Gan
FT
0 – 8
Holon Yermiyahu
Holon Yermiyahu
12/25/2023State CupState Cup · 6th RoundSafari Complex Training Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Shikun Vatikim Ramat Gan2%
×Draw5%
Holon Yermiyahu93%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shikun Vatikim Ramat Gan
0.72
Holon Yermiyahu
4.56

Holon Yermiyahu creates 533% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 10 away

creates per match

Shikun Vatikim Ramat Gan
0.33
Holon Yermiyahu
2.80

allows per match

Shikun Vatikim Ramat Gan
6.33
Holon Yermiyahu
1.10

finishing

Shikun Vatikim Ramat Gan+0.00on par
Holon Yermiyahu+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shikun Vatikim Ramat Gan ↓

Holon Yermiyahu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–26%
0–310%
0–411%
1
1–00%
1–12%
1–25%
1–37%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–22%
2–33%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (11%) · grid covers 63% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Shikun Vatikim Ramat Gan or draw
7%
Shikun Vatikim Ramat Gan or Holon Yermiyahu
95%
Draw or Holon Yermiyahu
98%

Winning margin

Shikun Vatikim Ramat Gan wins by 2+
1%
Holon Yermiyahu wins by 2+
82%

Team goals

Shikun Vatikim Ramat Gan 1+ goals
51%
Shikun Vatikim Ramat Gan 2+ goals
16%
Shikun Vatikim Ramat Gan 3+ goals
4%
Holon Yermiyahu 1+ goals
99%
Holon Yermiyahu 2+ goals
93%
Holon Yermiyahu 3+ goals
80%

Draw no bet

Shikun Vatikim Ramat Gan (draw refunded)
2%
Holon Yermiyahu (draw refunded)
98%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shikun Vatikim Ramat Gan at home — creates 0.33, concedes 6.33 · 3 matches

Holon Yermiyahu away — creates 2.80, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shikun Vatikim Ramat Gan attack 0.33 + Holon Yermiyahu defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.72

Holon Yermiyahu attack 2.80 + Shikun Vatikim Ramat Gan defence 6.33 → ÷2 → 4.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 93%?"

Shikun Vatikim Ramat Gan scores more
2%
level
5%
Holon Yermiyahu scores more
93%

Holon Yermiyahu at 93% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 93% does not mean "Holon Yermiyahu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shikun Vatikim Ramat Gan vs Holon Yermiyahu

Holon Yermiyahu beat Shikun Vatikim Ramat Gan 8-0 in State Cup on December 25, 2023.

The match was played at Safari Complex Training Ground in Ramat Gan.