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Shikun Vatikim Ramat Gan vs Agudat Sport Ashdod — State Cup 2019

Shikun Vatikim Ramat Gan
Shikun Vatikim Ramat Gan
FT
1 – 6
Agudat Sport Ashdod
Agudat Sport Ashdod
10/7/2019State CupState Cup · 6th RoundRamat Gan Artificial Pitch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Shikun Vatikim Ramat Gan3%
×Draw6%
Agudat Sport Ashdod92%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shikun Vatikim Ramat Gan
0.67
Agudat Sport Ashdod
4.17

Agudat Sport Ashdod creates 522% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Shikun Vatikim Ramat Gan
0.33
Agudat Sport Ashdod
2.00

allows per match

Shikun Vatikim Ramat Gan
6.33
Agudat Sport Ashdod
1.00

finishing

Shikun Vatikim Ramat Gan+0.00on par
Agudat Sport Ashdod+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shikun Vatikim Ramat Gan ↓

Agudat Sport Ashdod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–28%
0–311%
0–411%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–25%
1–37%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–22%
2–32%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (11%) · grid covers 68% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Shikun Vatikim Ramat Gan or draw
8%
Shikun Vatikim Ramat Gan or Agudat Sport Ashdod
94%
Draw or Agudat Sport Ashdod
97%

Winning margin

Shikun Vatikim Ramat Gan wins by 2+
1%
Agudat Sport Ashdod wins by 2+
79%

Team goals

Shikun Vatikim Ramat Gan 1+ goals
49%
Shikun Vatikim Ramat Gan 2+ goals
15%
Shikun Vatikim Ramat Gan 3+ goals
3%
Agudat Sport Ashdod 1+ goals
98%
Agudat Sport Ashdod 2+ goals
91%
Agudat Sport Ashdod 3+ goals
75%

Draw no bet

Shikun Vatikim Ramat Gan (draw refunded)
3%
Agudat Sport Ashdod (draw refunded)
97%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shikun Vatikim Ramat Gan at home — creates 0.33, concedes 6.33 · 3 matches

Agudat Sport Ashdod away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shikun Vatikim Ramat Gan attack 0.33 + Agudat Sport Ashdod defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.67

Agudat Sport Ashdod attack 2.00 + Shikun Vatikim Ramat Gan defence 6.33 → ÷2 → 4.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 92%?"

Shikun Vatikim Ramat Gan scores more
3%
level
6%
Agudat Sport Ashdod scores more
92%

Agudat Sport Ashdod at 92% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 92% does not mean "Agudat Sport Ashdod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

State Cup: Shikun Vatikim Ramat Gan 1–6 Agudat Sport Ashdod

Agudat Sport Ashdod beat Shikun Vatikim Ramat Gan 6-1 in State Cup on October 7, 2019.

The match was played at Ramat Gan Artificial Pitch in Ramat Gan.