Shijiazhuang Y. J. 5–1 Zibo Cuju: Result & Stats

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

5 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Zibo Cuju

10/14/2021

FA Cup · 1st RoundDevelopment Area Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Shijiazhuang Y. J.57%

×Draw19%

Zibo Cuju24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shijiazhuang Y. J.Expected goals in this matchZibo Cuju

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

1.60

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

2.50

Zibo Cuju

1.60

Shijiazhuang Y. J. creates 56% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

2.40

creates per match

1.60

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

2.40

Zibo Cuju

1.60

allows per match

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

1.60

Zibo Cuju

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shijiazhuang Y. J.+0.00on par

Zibo Cuju+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shijiazhuang Y. J. ↓

Zibo Cuju →

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–04%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4–03%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Shijiazhuang Y. J. or draw

76%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. or Zibo Cuju

81%

Draw or Zibo Cuju

43%

Winning margin

Shijiazhuang Y. J. wins by 2+

36%

Zibo Cuju wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1+ goals

92%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2+ goals

71%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3+ goals

45%

Zibo Cuju 1+ goals

80%

Zibo Cuju 2+ goals

47%

Zibo Cuju 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Shijiazhuang Y. J. (draw refunded)

70%

Zibo Cuju (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Zibo Cuju away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 2.40 + Zibo Cuju defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.50

Zibo Cuju attack 1.60 + Shijiazhuang Y. J. defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 57%?"

Shijiazhuang Y. J. scores more

57%

level

19%

Zibo Cuju scores more

24%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Shijiazhuang Y. J. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff