Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1–1 Zhejiang Yiteng

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Zhejiang Yiteng

4/8/2018

League One · Round 5Yutong International Sports Center (Shijiazhuang)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shijiazhuang Y. J.62%

×Draw21%

Zhejiang Yiteng17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shijiazhuang Y. J.Expected goals in this matchZhejiang Yiteng

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.03

0.95

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

2.03

Zhejiang Yiteng

0.95

Shijiazhuang Y. J. creates 114% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

1.93

creates per match

0.80

1.10

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

1.93

Zhejiang Yiteng

0.80

allows per match

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

1.10

Zhejiang Yiteng

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shijiazhuang Y. J.+0.00on par

Zhejiang Yiteng+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shijiazhuang Y. J. ↓

Zhejiang Yiteng →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Shijiazhuang Y. J. or draw

83%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. or Zhejiang Yiteng

79%

Draw or Zhejiang Yiteng

38%

Winning margin

Shijiazhuang Y. J. wins by 2+

38%

Zhejiang Yiteng wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1+ goals

87%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2+ goals

60%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3+ goals

33%

Zhejiang Yiteng 1+ goals

61%

Zhejiang Yiteng 2+ goals

25%

Zhejiang Yiteng 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Shijiazhuang Y. J. (draw refunded)

79%

Zhejiang Yiteng (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.10 · 30 matches

Zhejiang Yiteng away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.93 + Zhejiang Yiteng defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.03

Zhejiang Yiteng attack 0.80 + Shijiazhuang Y. J. defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Shijiazhuang Y. J. scores more

62%

level

21%

Zhejiang Yiteng scores more

17%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Shijiazhuang Y. J. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff