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Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shenzhen Ruby FC — Super League 2018

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Shenzhen Ruby FC
11/2/2020Super LeagueSuper League · 13th-16th Place Play-offsJinzhou Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Shijiazhuang Y. J.49%
×Draw24%
Shenzhen Ruby FC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.67
Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.18

Shijiazhuang Y. J. creates 42% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 67 away

creates per match

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.09
Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.03

allows per match

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.32
Shenzhen Ruby FC
2.25

finishing

Shijiazhuang Y. J.+0.00on par
Shenzhen Ruby FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shijiazhuang Y. J. ↓

Shenzhen Ruby FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Shijiazhuang Y. J. or draw
73%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. or Shenzhen Ruby FC
76%
Draw or Shenzhen Ruby FC
51%

Winning margin

Shijiazhuang Y. J. wins by 2+
26%
Shenzhen Ruby FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1+ goals
81%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2+ goals
50%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3+ goals
23%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 1+ goals
69%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 2+ goals
33%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Shijiazhuang Y. J. (draw refunded)
64%
Shenzhen Ruby FC (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.32 · 69 matches

Shenzhen Ruby FC away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.25 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.09 + Shenzhen Ruby FC defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.67

Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.03 + Shijiazhuang Y. J. defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Shijiazhuang Y. J. scores more
49%
level
24%
Shenzhen Ruby FC scores more
27%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Shijiazhuang Y. J. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shenzhen Ruby FC

Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shenzhen Ruby FC drew 2-2 in Super League on November 2, 2020.

The match was played at Jinzhou Stadium in Dalian.