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Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. — Super League 2018

Shenzhen Ruby FC
Shenzhen Ruby FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
6/17/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 4Wuhua Hengpi Football Town

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Shenzhen Ruby FC41%
×Draw24%
Shijiazhuang Y. J.35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.58
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.44

Shenzhen Ruby FC creates 10% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 68 away

creates per match

Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.09
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.25

allows per match

Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.63
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
2.06

finishing

Shenzhen Ruby FC+0.00on par
Shijiazhuang Y. J.+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shenzhen Ruby FC ↓

Shijiazhuang Y. J. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Shenzhen Ruby FC or draw
65%
Shenzhen Ruby FC or Shijiazhuang Y. J.
76%
Draw or Shijiazhuang Y. J.
59%

Winning margin

Shenzhen Ruby FC wins by 2+
20%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Shenzhen Ruby FC 1+ goals
79%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 2+ goals
47%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 3+ goals
21%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1+ goals
76%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2+ goals
42%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Shenzhen Ruby FC (draw refunded)
54%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shenzhen Ruby FC at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.63 · 68 matches

Shijiazhuang Y. J. away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.06 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.09 + Shijiazhuang Y. J. defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.58

Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.25 + Shenzhen Ruby FC defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Shenzhen Ruby FC scores more
41%
level
24%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. scores more
35%

Shenzhen Ruby FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Shenzhen Ruby FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Shenzhen Ruby FC 1–0 Shijiazhuang Y. J.

Shenzhen Ruby FC beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1-0 in Super League on June 17, 2022.

The match was played at Wuhua Hengpi Football Town in Dongguan.