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Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shanghai Shenxin — League One 2018

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Shanghai Shenxin
Shanghai Shenxin
4/6/2019League OneLeague One · Round 4Hebei Olympic Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Shijiazhuang Y. J.60%
×Draw21%
Shanghai Shenxin19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
2.04
Shanghai Shenxin
1.06

Shijiazhuang Y. J. creates 92% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 31 away

creates per match

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.93
Shanghai Shenxin
1.03

allows per match

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.10
Shanghai Shenxin
2.16

finishing

Shijiazhuang Y. J.+0.00on par
Shanghai Shenxin+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shijiazhuang Y. J. ↓

Shanghai Shenxin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Shijiazhuang Y. J. or draw
81%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. or Shanghai Shenxin
79%
Draw or Shanghai Shenxin
40%

Winning margin

Shijiazhuang Y. J. wins by 2+
36%
Shanghai Shenxin wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1+ goals
87%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2+ goals
60%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3+ goals
33%
Shanghai Shenxin 1+ goals
65%
Shanghai Shenxin 2+ goals
29%
Shanghai Shenxin 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Shijiazhuang Y. J. (draw refunded)
76%
Shanghai Shenxin (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.10 · 30 matches

Shanghai Shenxin away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.16 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.93 + Shanghai Shenxin defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.04

Shanghai Shenxin attack 1.03 + Shijiazhuang Y. J. defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Shijiazhuang Y. J. scores more
60%
level
21%
Shanghai Shenxin scores more
19%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Shijiazhuang Y. J. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3–2 Shanghai Shenxin

Shijiazhuang Y. J. beat Shanghai Shenxin 3-2 in League One on April 6, 2019.

The match was played at Hebei Olympic Sports Center in Shijiazhuang.