Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2–1 Nantong Zhiyun

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Nantong Zhiyun

3/10/2019

League One · Round 1Hebei Olympic Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Shijiazhuang Y. J.42%

×Draw26%

Nantong Zhiyun32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shijiazhuang Y. J.Expected goals in this matchNantong Zhiyun

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.21

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

1.44

Nantong Zhiyun

1.21

Shijiazhuang Y. J. creates 19% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 77 away

1.93

creates per match

1.38

1.03

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

1.93

Nantong Zhiyun

1.38

allows per match

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

1.03

Nantong Zhiyun

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shijiazhuang Y. J.+0.00on par

Nantong Zhiyun+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shijiazhuang Y. J. ↓

Nantong Zhiyun →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Shijiazhuang Y. J. or draw

68%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. or Nantong Zhiyun

74%

Draw or Nantong Zhiyun

58%

Winning margin

Shijiazhuang Y. J. wins by 2+

20%

Nantong Zhiyun wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1+ goals

76%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2+ goals

42%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3+ goals

18%

Nantong Zhiyun 1+ goals

70%

Nantong Zhiyun 2+ goals

34%

Nantong Zhiyun 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Shijiazhuang Y. J. (draw refunded)

57%

Nantong Zhiyun (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.03 · 29 matches

Nantong Zhiyun away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.96 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.93 + Nantong Zhiyun defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.44

Nantong Zhiyun attack 1.38 + Shijiazhuang Y. J. defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Shijiazhuang Y. J. scores more

42%

level

26%

Nantong Zhiyun scores more

32%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Shijiazhuang Y. J. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff