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Nantong Zhiyun vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. — League One 2018

Nantong Zhiyun
Nantong Zhiyun
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
7/6/2019League OneLeague One · Round 16Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Nantong Zhiyun46%
×Draw25%
Shijiazhuang Y. J.29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nantong Zhiyun
1.58
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.19

Nantong Zhiyun creates 33% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 30 away

creates per match

Nantong Zhiyun
1.58
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.47

allows per match

Nantong Zhiyun
0.91
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.57

finishing

Nantong Zhiyun+0.00on par
Shijiazhuang Y. J.+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nantong Zhiyun ↓

Shijiazhuang Y. J. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Nantong Zhiyun or draw
71%
Nantong Zhiyun or Shijiazhuang Y. J.
75%
Draw or Shijiazhuang Y. J.
54%

Winning margin

Nantong Zhiyun wins by 2+
24%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Nantong Zhiyun 1+ goals
79%
Nantong Zhiyun 2+ goals
47%
Nantong Zhiyun 3+ goals
21%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1+ goals
70%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2+ goals
33%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Nantong Zhiyun (draw refunded)
62%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nantong Zhiyun at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.91 · 79 matches

Shijiazhuang Y. J. away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.57 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nantong Zhiyun attack 1.58 + Shijiazhuang Y. J. defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.58

Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.47 + Nantong Zhiyun defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Nantong Zhiyun scores more
46%
level
25%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. scores more
29%

Nantong Zhiyun at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Nantong Zhiyun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Nantong Zhiyun 2–2 Shijiazhuang Y. J.

Nantong Zhiyun and Shijiazhuang Y. J. drew 2-2 in League One on July 6, 2019.

The match was played at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Rugao.