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Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Meizhou Kejia — Super League 2018

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Meizhou Kejia
Meizhou Kejia
6/9/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 2Wuhua Hengpi Football Town

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Shijiazhuang Y. J.47%
×Draw25%
Meizhou Kejia28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.54
Meizhou Kejia
1.13

Shijiazhuang Y. J. creates 36% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 62 away

creates per match

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.09
Meizhou Kejia
0.94

allows per match

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.32
Meizhou Kejia
2.00

finishing

Shijiazhuang Y. J.+0.00on par
Meizhou Kejia+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shijiazhuang Y. J. ↓

Meizhou Kejia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Shijiazhuang Y. J. or draw
72%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. or Meizhou Kejia
75%
Draw or Meizhou Kejia
53%

Winning margin

Shijiazhuang Y. J. wins by 2+
24%
Meizhou Kejia wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1+ goals
79%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2+ goals
45%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3+ goals
20%
Meizhou Kejia 1+ goals
68%
Meizhou Kejia 2+ goals
31%
Meizhou Kejia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Shijiazhuang Y. J. (draw refunded)
63%
Meizhou Kejia (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.32 · 69 matches

Meizhou Kejia away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.00 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.09 + Meizhou Kejia defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.54

Meizhou Kejia attack 0.94 + Shijiazhuang Y. J. defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Shijiazhuang Y. J. scores more
47%
level
25%
Meizhou Kejia scores more
28%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Shijiazhuang Y. J. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1–1 Meizhou Kejia

Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Meizhou Kejia drew 1-1 in Super League on June 9, 2022.

The match was played at Wuhua Hengpi Football Town in Dongguan.